CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-12-20T12:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-12-20T12:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18587/-1
CME Note: This CME is associated with an M1.8 from AR12908 (S20W00). It is visible in the south of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and in the west of STEROE A COR. This CME has a dimpled front. The eruption is characterized by an EUV wave, dimming, and post eruption arcades. | Update: "There is no clear CME signature on Dec 24-25. During the short-duration mag field rotations, the field is not much increased or quiet." - Lan Jian
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-12-23T22:32Z (-9.5h, +13.4h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 100.0%
Prediction Method: DBM
Prediction Method Note:
Prediction Method: DBEMv3 Prediction Method Note: Drag-based model in ensemble mode v3 (DBEMv3-ESA/SSA application) http://swe.ssa.esa.int/heliospheric-weather Model & CME input parameters (CME input taken from Donki): start time: 2021-12-20 18:26 (+/-30 min) start distance: 21.5 Rsun initial speed: 546 km/s (+/-150) halfwidth: 35 deg (+/-10) lon: -7 deg (+/-20) solar wind speed: 349 km/s (+/-100) gamma: 0.2 (+/-0.1) ------ probability of arrival: 100% CME arrival date & time: 2021-12-23 22:32 (+13.4h, -9.5h) CME arrival speed: 455 km/s (+63 km/s, -62 km/s) ------Lead Time: 57.37 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mateja Dumbovic (Hvar Obs) on 2021-12-21T13:10Z
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